Transmission Adequacy Consulting
Cutting edge technology in system reliabiliy analysis
for systems relying heavily on wind, solar, and hydro.
· Eugene G. Preston's Presentations
· Texas P.E. Board Registration
· email: email@example.com
Blackouts are likely to continue in ERCOT because of these shortcomings:
Load management (load shedding) is being greatly expanded because of insufficient supply.
ERCOT was not given sufficient rules and accountability measures to insure reliability.
The more curtailments there are the more gas supply backup systems will be installed.
Electric curtailments with customer gas backups might bring down the gas supply also.
Gas delivery systems are not designed to serve all gas customers for extended times.
Electric System Reliability and Climate Change:
My Personal Story in Load Forecasting at Austin Energy in the 1970s.
ERCOT's reliability is dropping due to wind pdf file and video.
PS4.zip Computer files for the IEEE RAWG 2020 presentation.
Python 2.7 for Windows is needed to run the PS4 program above.
Gene Preston's August 2020 talk to the Engineering Council of Houston.
Bill Gates slams renewables power reliability for supplying Tokyo's power needs.
Jesse Jenkins talks about renewables and nuclear in a 100% non CO2 electric grid.
An illustration how a load duration curve changes as renewables are added.
PBS show Blackout shows how a 1977 NYC blackout caused great hardship.
Is having 100% renewable energy for a country feasible? The answer is -
Report to ERCOT on VER Capacity and Reserve Margin and video at Univ of Texas.
Variable Energy Resource Capacity Contributions Consistent With Reserve Margin and Reliability.
Base load solar in different regions using hourly excel spreadsheets:
Solar Base Load in Texas compares solar 40 c/kWh versus nuclear 12 c/kWh for Texas.
Solar Base Load in Canada compares solar 100 c/kWh versus nuclear 12 c/kWh for Canada.
Solar Base Load in Australia compares solar 30 c/kWh versus nuclear 12 c/kWh for Australia.
Solar Base Load in California compares solar 30 c/kWh versus nuclear 12 c/kWh for California.
Solar Base Load in PJM compares solar 48 c/kWh versus nuclear 12 c/kWh for PJM.
ERCOT zero CO2 2030 with 100 GW peak using an excel spreadsheet hourly model:
Plan 1 5n 362s 40w 2100bat 1093$bn 30 c/kWh no new nuclear is highest energy cost.
Plan 2 5n 140s 98w 1850bat _826$bn 22.5 c/kWh no new nuclear more wind less solar.
Plan 3 30n _80s 60w 1000bat 740$bn 18.1 c/kWh new nuclear lowering renewables lowers cost.
Plan 4 40n _70s 40w _700bat 725$bn 16.8 c/kWh more nuclear lowering renewables lowers cost.
Plan 5 80n __0s _0w _207bat 841$bn 16.7 c/kWh all nuclear plus storage is about the same cost.
Plan 6 60n _30s 30w _250bat 755$bn 16.0 c/kWh nuclear storage and renewables mix is lowest cost.
New liquid metal battery looks good for grid storage.
Retiring Austin's 570 MW share of Fayette Power Plant and replacing with renewables:
1400 MW solar, 1200 MW wind, 18000 MWh battery $8bn cost, 23 c/kwh energy cost.
CAISO zero CO2 with 47 GW peak using an excel spreadsheet hourly model:
Plan 1 2.27n 220s 6w 800bat 525$bn 33.0 c/kWh this keeps current nuclear adds solar and batteries.
Plan 2 __0.n 280s 6w 800bat 592$bn 37.2 c/kWh retires all nuclear and replaces with 60 GW solar.
Plan 3 _25.n _25s 6w 100bat 320$bn 15.4 c/kWh has 25 GW nuclear, 25 GW solar, 100 GWh batteries.
LADWP zero CO2 with 11 GW peak for 2045 target year excel hourly model:
Plan 4 0.0n 40.8s 10.2w 300bat 142$bn 38.0 c/kWh 100% renewables and storage with 0 nuclear 0 fossil.
Plan 5 5.1n 11.0s _1.2w _40bat _78$bn 16.8 c/kWh nuclear fills in energy gaps reducing the need for storage.
Historical RTS Development (newest to oldest):
RTS3 program (.exe) has storage and uses the modernized 2020 RTS data files.
2020 RTS3 NREL Update at PMAPS 2018 and similarly for the
Austin Physics Group.
NREL new RTS model entry point and
reliability indices models.
The 1979 RTS generation distibution is a poor fit to a Normal distribution curve.
For overlapping f(x) distributions this shows what not to shade as the overlap.
1979 RTS excel spreadsheet shows how to find LOLH and EUE from load and generation F(x).
An example for how to correctly calculate LOLH and EUE from f(x) or F(x) distributions.
Older RTS3 which includes a Matlab version. See the LOLE seek feature in operation.
RTS2.zip expands RTS1 to a two area model bringing transmission constraints into LOLP studies.
RTS1.zip has all the 1986 and 2016 files plus multi-state generators and auto LOLE capability.
RTS2016 info describes an LOLE program for evaluating the capacity value of wind, water, and solar.
RTS2016.zip has four UK case studes and all associated files including the program code and executables.
RTS1986.zip runs example cases verifying the new RTS program reproduces 1986 IEEE RTS paper 'exact' indices.
Sequential Monte Carlo vs sequential COPT.
My 1997 Dissertation and 2002 ERCOT Seminar:
Dissertation on composite generation/transmission reliability (1.3 Mb) and at Univ of Texas Library...
A B C D and
Bibliography and Defense
IEEE paper on generation reliability modeling with transmission constraints
IEEE paper on transmission reliability modeling for multiple line outages (zipflow)
An ERCOT Seminar on Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) basic concepts.
The 1999 Synchronous Interconnection Study report to the Texas Legislature.
My 1979 Masters is a way to linearly allocate losses in large power systems.
Other Interesting Stuff:
2015-2020 Energy and CO2 articles and Greenland and Antarctica Ice Loss and Dr Sylvia Dee_Climate.mp4 presentation.
My dissertation also revealed a way to perform Piecewise Quadratic time domain analysis.
MOND outperforms dark matter theories. Dark matter might be energy in the gravity fields themselves, especially from black holes.
Event horizon talk suggests we need a new gravity theory for super massive black holes.
This paper is an outline discussing two severe problems with General Relativity.
Here are some examples showing how the speed of light is a hidden variable.
New gravity equation explains galaxy rotation without needing dark matter.
Source of the fine line 137 constant is derived
from EM as spherical energy.
If you want to see just how much missing mass there is take a look at this.
Einstein's Assumption Fails conservaton of wavefronts test.
The apparent speed of light is a constant but is it absolute?
My twitter comments on energy and climate change.
See how to replace a broken sony vaio touch screen.
Boomer Block Pools Scamming Information.
Links to other K5GP amateur radio info.
Gene's Tesla 3 videos and photos.