Transmission Adequacy Consulting
Cutting edge technology in system reliabiliy analysis
for systems relying heavily on wind, solar, and hydro.
Eugene G. Preston's Presentations
Texas P.E. Board Registration

Base load solar in different regions using hourly excel spreadsheets:
Solar Base Load in Texas compares solar 40 c/kWh versus nuclear 12 c/kWh for Texas.
Solar Base Load in Canada compares solar 100 c/kWh versus nuclear 12 c/kWh for Canada.
Solar Base Load in Australia compares solar 30 c/kWh versus nuclear 12 c/kWh for Australia.
Solar Base Load in California compares solar 30 c/kWh versus nuclear 12 c/kWh for California.
Solar Base Load in PJM compares solar 48 c/kWh versus nuclear 12 c/kWh for PJM.

ERCOT zero CO2 2030 with 100 GW peak using an excel spreadsheet hourly model:
Plan 1 _5n 140s 98w 1850bat 826$bn 22.5 c/kWh no new nuclear is highest energy cost.
Plan 2 80n __0s _0w _207bat 841$bn 16.7 c/kWh all nuclear is highest investment cost.
Plan 3 60n _30s 30w _250bat 755$bn 16.0 c/kWh more nuclear less renewables lowers energy cost.
Plan 4 30n _80s 60w 1000bat 740$bn 18.1 c/kWh less nuclear more renewables lowers capital cost.

Gas generation is automatically added: Computer files for the IEEE RAWG 2020 report and video.
Python 2.7 for Windows can be loaded on a PC to run this program.

Historical RTS Development (newest to oldest):
RTS3 program (.exe) has storage and uses the modernized 2020 RTS data files.
2020 RTS3 NREL Update at PMAPS 2018 and similarly for the Austin Physics Group.
NREL new RTS model entry point and reliability indices models.
STORAGE program calculates how much storage is needed and video.
The 1979 RTS generation distibution is a poor fit to a Normal distribution curve.
For overlapping f(x) distributions this shows what not to shade as the overlap.
1979 RTS excel spreadsheet shows how to find LOLH and EUE from load and generation F(x).
An example for how to correctly calculate LOLH and EUE from f(x) or F(x) distributions.
Older RTS3 which includes a Matlab version. See the LOLE seek feature in operation. expands RTS1 to a two area model bringing transmission constraints into LOLP studies. has all the 1986 and 2016 files plus multi-state generators and auto LOLE capability.
RTS2016 info describes an LOLE program for evaluating the capacity value of wind, water, and solar. has four UK case studes and all associated files including the program code and executables. runs example cases verifying the new RTS program reproduces 1986 IEEE RTS paper 'exact' indices.
Sequential Monte Carlo vs sequential COPT.

Electric System Reliability and Climate Change:
Gene Preston's August 2020 talk to the Engineering Council of Houston.
Jesse Jenkins talks about renewables and nuclear in a 100% non CO2 electric grid.
An illustration how a load duration curve changes as renewables are added.
PBS show Blackout shows how a 1977 NYC blackout caused great hardship.
Is having 100% renewable energy for a country feasible? The answer is - extremely unlikely.
Report to ERCOT on VER Capacity and Reserve Margin and video at Univ of Texas.
Variable Energy Resource Capacity Contributions Consistent With Reserve Margin and Reliability.

My 1997 Dissertation and 2002 ERCOT Seminar:
Dissertation on composite generation/transmission reliability (1.3 Mb) and at Univ of Texas Library...
...Appendices A B C D and Bibliography and Defense
IEEE paper on generation reliability modeling with transmission constraints
IEEE paper on transmission reliability modeling for multiple line outages (zipflow)
An ERCOT Seminar on Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) basic concepts.

Other Interesting Stuff:
2015-2020 Energy and CO2 articles and Greenland and Antarctica Ice Loss and Dr. Sylvia Dee's 2020 assessment.
My dissertation also revealed a way to perform Piecewise Quadratic time domain analysis.
MOND outperforms dark matter theories. Dark matter might be energy in the gravity fields themselves, especially from black holes.
Event horizon talk suggests we need a new gravity theory for super massive black holes.
This paper is an outline discussing two severe problems with General Relativity.
Here are some examples showing how the speed of light is a hidden variable.
New gravity equation explains galaxy rotation without needing dark matter.
Source of the fine line 137 constant is derived from EM as spherical energy.
If you want to see just how much missing mass there is take a look at this.
Einstein's Assumption Fails conservaton of wavefronts test.
The apparent speed of light is a constant but is it absolute?
My twitter comments on energy and climate change.
See how to replace a broken sony vaio touch screen.
Boomer Block Pools Scamming Information.
Links to other K5GP amateur radio info.
Gene's Tesla 3 videos and photos.