Transmission Adequacy Consulting

Wind and Solar ATC Studies (Ask for a free introductory test case.)
New ATC sub OPF model and N-2 AC loadflow solutions
New PTDF model lists the generators causing congestion
New distance calculator quickly finds nearby generators
Composite Generation/Transmission Reliability Studies
Review Electric Network Studies Prepared by Others
Low Fees Charged for Advanced Studies (~$1000)
Quick Turnaround on Study Requests

Eugene G. Preston, PhD, PE
6121 Soter Parkway
Austin, TX 78735-6100
512-892-3621 ofc
512-921-3337 cel
g.preston@ieee.org

Texas P.E. Board Registration
Eugene G. Preston's Resume (& clients)

Free Software for Calculating the LOLE *
* The Loss Of Load Expectation LOLE is the annual sum of daily LOLPs (the maximum loss of load probability each day).
All the examples below are written in low level Fortran 77 with structure: array declarations, input data, calculations, and output reports.
DC.txt is a direct calculation example convolving ten randomly outaged generators. The 'exact' solution is listed after the program.
DCP.txt is the same as DC.txt except two of the generators are given reduced power states. The 'exact' solution is listed after the program.
DCPi.txt is the same as DCP.txt except the convolution is performed shifting the full/partial outage states to the right. The 'exact' solution is given.
DCPj.txt is the same as DCPi.txt except real*4 instead of real*8 numbers are used. Comparing results shows the real*4 solution is accurate enough.
DCPk.txt uses DCPj.txt convolution in a large scale system example about the size of the eastern US grid, 8000 generators with ~780,000 MW total.
The .exe executables below were compiled for the source codes listed. They contain no viruses. Save the .exe and run from a command prompt window.
OPMC2.txt uses the 10 generator model Direct Calculation and sequential Monte Carlo methods to calculate reliabilty indices. MC2.exe is the executable.
OPMC3.txt repeats the above data 11 times to create a larger system using both Direct and MC solutions for reliability indices. MC3.exe is the executable.
OPMC3i.txt shows how to reformulate the direct solution for the above system creating a COPT capacity outage probablity table. MC3i.exe is the executable.
MC4.txt is a fortran program for simulating a 2 area larger scale power system using both a direct solution and a frequency&duration MC solution.
OPMC4.txt is the output report of the MC4 two area larger scale example problem. MC4.exe is the executable.
MC4i.txt is like MC4 but can handle extremely large systems like the entire US system. Sequential MC is retained and with new outputs.
OPMC4i.txt is the output report of MC4i for the same two area larger scale example problem. MC4i.exe is the executable.
MC4F(X).txt shows the F(X) function for the MC4 program. MC4iF(X).txt shows the F(X) function for the MC4i program.
Hourly US solar and wind data and an example study using this data.

Keeping The Grid Reliable As Renewables Grow
The final version of the Clean Power Plan and in the Federal Register.
There is very little about grid reliability in this document other than reference to the various agencies that are responsible.
My 15 minute presentation to the Austin Electric Utility Commission concerning wind and solar generation in ERCOT.
My IEEE 2015 Denver Power Engineering Society Panel Session and LOLE working group presentation.
Georgetown TX will get all their energy from wind and solar, using ERCOT as its 'battery'. Can all cities do the same as Georgetown? (no)
ERCOT 100% renewables requires a $6600 billion investment in batteries which is far too expensive to be a realistic goal.
UT Law Conference on Renewables and ERCOT study on how well renewables displace fossil fuels in the 2030 Clean Power Plan.
A Direct High Speed Calculation Procedure For Determining LOLE, LOLH, and EUE For Fossil, Wind, and Solar Generation With A Suggested Procedure For Also Including Transmission Constraints - WECC video 1 - file 1 and repeated to the IEEE video 2 - file 2 which also has study results.
Here is why it's so important to keep the grid reliable, i.e. maintaining an LOLE<=0.1 days per year.
SDG&E disrupts power to 115,000 to avoid wider blackouts probably due to transmission ATC limits.
Here is my letter to the EPA concerning what I see in the future as we phase out coal.
Here are my comments to the PUCT project 42302 concerning LOLE as a measure of risk.

A Direct Method For Calculating Probabilistic Transmission Flows
Dissertation on composite generation/transmission reliability (1.3 Mb) Appendices A B C D and Bibliography and Defense
IEEE paper on generation reliability modeling with transmission constraints
IEEE paper on transmission reliability modeling for multiple line outages (zipflow)
This LOLP presentation shows how to create the COPT or capacity outage probability table.

Articles on: 2015 Energy and CO2 and Greenland and Antarctica Ice Loss.
See Ben Heard's excellent talk starting at 16 minutes in this video.
Jim Hansen assesses world wide options for fossil fuel reduction as an invited lecturer to China.
Mark Jacobson's reply to Hansen is more about US nuclear power policies than it is about physics.
Here are Mark Jacobson's papers. Mark has a valid point on nuclear development problems. But his concept has just as much delay in the building of new transmission lines as the building of new nuclear plants. This makes Mark's plan as slow to develop as a nuclear power plan. The US has no long range energy plan. Here are comments and more comments. My reply to Jacobson's Paper.

Miscellaneous:
Impact of construction in real time. So why is this useful? What's the message?
My dissertation also revealed a way to perform Piecewise Quadratic time domain analysis.
Voltage Regulation theory presented by Kashem Muttaqi and Keith Elder at the University of Wollongong.
SpaceX Falcon 9 launch and landing. Start the video at 20 minutes to watch the launch.
Einstein's Assumption Fails A Simple Test, which Relativists are in denial they have a problem.
New ideas are always difficult to gain acceptance including the problem with general relativity I have described above.
My essay to the Gravity Foundation on Einstein's violation of a conservation law, which the Relativists have rejected.
How do you know the age of the universe is 13.8 billion years if the gravity potential is constantly increasing?
Here is a neat way to watch pay per view movies on TiVo or your Smart TV that can access Youtube.
A fool proof way to protect your win 7, win 8, and win 10 pc from viruses and malware.
Twitter comments I have posted discussing energy and climate change issues.
K5GP FISTS # is 6643 and W5JLP FISTS # is 5169.
Links to other K5GP amateur radio info.
K5GP's radio noise tracking equipment.
Successful search for alien worlds.
Dr Jays birding photos.
Greenland.
The Moon.
The Sun.
Ceres.
edx.