· Harmer and helper generators causing congestion are identified.

· Determinstic studies can be expanded as probabilistic studies.

· Distance calculator quickly finds distances of all generators.

· Easy to read report listing ATCs in sorted ascending order.

· Low Fees: Solar $200/bus + ($200 setup for < 5 buses).

· Only $100/bus for zipflow* buses with ATC < 0.

· Quick turnaround on ATC study requests.

· * zipflow theory is on pages 123-128. Eugene G. Preston, PhD, PE

6121 Soter Parkway

Austin, TX 78735-6100

512-892-3621 ofc (leave a message, I'll call back)

512-921-3337 cel

g.preston@ieee.org

Texas P.E. Board Registration

Eugene G. Preston's Resume (& clients)

* The Loss Of Load Expectation LOLE is the annual sum of daily LOLPs (the maximum loss of load probability each day).

All the examples below are written in low level Fortran 77 with structure: array declarations, input data, calculations, and output reports.

DC.txt is a direct calculation example convolving ten randomly outaged generators. The 'exact' solution is listed after the program.

VDC.txt is the direct solution plus a full binary tree solution. The direct method is shown to be the same solution as a binary tree.

DCP.txt is the same as DC.txt except two of the generators also have derated power states. The 'exact' solution is listed after the program.

DCPi.txt is the same as DCP.txt except the convolution is performed shifting the full/partial outage states to the right. The 'exact' solution is given.

DCPj.txt is the same as DCPi.txt except real*4 instead of real*8 numbers are used. Comparing results shows the real*4 solution is accurate enough.

DCPk.txt uses DCPj.txt convolution in a large scale system example about the size of the eastern US grid, 8000 generators with ~780,000 MW total.

The .exe executables below were compiled for the source codes listed. They contain no viruses. Save the .exe and run from a command prompt window.

OPMC2.txt uses the 10 generator model Direct Calculation and sequential Monte Carlo methods to calculate reliabilty indices. MC2.exe is the executable.

OPMC3.txt repeats the above data 11 times to create a larger system using both Direct and MC solutions for reliability indices. MC3.exe is the executable.

OPMC3i.txt shows how to reformulate the direct solution for the above system creating a COPT capacity outage probablity table. MC3i.exe is the executable.

MC4.txt is a fortran program for simulating a 2 area larger scale power system using both a direct solution and a frequency&duration MC solution.

OPMC4.txt is the output report of the MC4 two area larger scale example problem. MC4.exe is the executable.

MC4i.txt is like MC4 but can handle extremely large systems like the entire US system. Sequential MC is retained and with new outputs.

OPMC4i.txt is the output report of MC4i for the same two area larger scale example problem. MC4i.exe is the executable.

MC4F(X).txt shows the F(X) function for the MC4 program. MC4iF(X).txt shows the F(X) function for the MC4i program.

% Cap Value of Solar: 20% Solar Power in ERCOT on a typical summer day graphed as solar is varied and the same day with no solar.

Hourly US solar and wind data and an example study using this data.

Estimating line lengths from X and B and correcting an IEEE RTS cable data error.

IEEE 3 area 1996 raw data in PSSE rev 33 format with cable impedance corrections.

Output base case solution report for the above data.

Max injection power at each bus, i.e. the bus ATCs.

Models treating wind as generators have a big problem.

UT Law Conference on Renewables and ERCOT study on how well renewables displace fossil fuels in the 2030 Clean Power Plan.

My 15 minute presentation to the Austin Electric Utility Commission concerning wind and solar generation in ERCOT.

My IEEE 2015 Denver Power Engineering Society Panel Session and LOLE working group presentation.

ERCOT 100% renewables requires a $6600 billion investment in batteries which is far too expensive to be a realistic goal.

A Direct High Speed Calculation Procedure For Determining LOLE, LOLH, and EUE For Fossil, Wind, and Solar Generation With A Suggested Procedure For Also Including Transmission Constraints - WECC video 1 - file 1 and repeated to the IEEE video 2 - file 2 which also has study results.

Here are my comments to the PUCT project 42302 concerning LOLE as a measure of risk.

Dissertation on composite generation/transmission reliability (1.3 Mb) Appendices A B C D and Bibliography and Defense

IEEE paper on generation reliability modeling with transmission constraints

IEEE paper on transmission reliability modeling for multiple line outages (zipflow)

ERCOT Seminar on generation adequacy LOLP mathematical methods in 2002.

This study suggests that the only way fossil fuels can be reduced is through a carbon tax.

See Ben Heard's excellent talk starting at 16 minutes in this video.

Jim Hansen assesses world wide options for fossil fuel reduction as an invited lecturer to China.

Mark Jacobson's reply to Hansen is more about US nuclear power policies than it is about physics.

Here are Mark Jacobson's papers. Mark has a valid point on nuclear development problems. But his concept has just as much delay in the building of new transmission lines as the building of new nuclear plants. This makes Mark's plan as slow to develop as a nuclear power plan. The US has no long range energy plan. Here are comments and more comments. My reply to Jacobson's Paper and this Nat Geo article.

Voltage Regulation theory by Kashem Muttaqi and Keith Elder at the University of Wollongong.

My dissertation also revealed a way to perform Piecewise Quadratic time domain analysis.

Age of universe depends on the rate of time flow over time.

Einstein's Assumption Fails conservaton of wavefronts test.

My twitter comments on energy and climate change.

K5GP FISTS #6643 W5JLP FISTS #5169.

Links to other K5GP amateur radio info.

K5GP's radio noise tracking equipment.

Blue Origin 2nd flight.