Transmission Adequacy Consulting
· Wind and Solar ATC Studies (Ask for a free introductory test case.)
· New ATC sub OPF model and N-2 AC loadflow solutions
· New PTDF model lists the generators causing congestion
· New distance calculator quickly finds nearby generators
· Composite Generation/Transmission Reliability Studies
· Review Electric Network Studies Prepared by Others
· Low Fees Charged for Advanced Studies (~$1000)
· Quick Turnaround on Study Requests
Eugene G. Preston, PhD, PE
6121 Soter Parkway
Austin, TX 78735-6100
Texas P.E. Board Registration
Eugene G. Preston's Resume (& clients)
Free Software for Calculating the LOLE
* The Loss Of Load Expectation LOLE is the annual sum of daily LOLPs (the maximum loss of load probability each day).
All the examples below are written in low level Fortran 77 with structure: array declarations, input data, calculations, and output reports.
OPDC.txt is a direct calculation example convolving ten randomly outaged generators. The 'exact' solution is listed after the program.
The .exe executables below were compiled for the source codes listed. They contain no viruses. Save the .exe and run from a command prompt window.
OPMC2.txt uses the 10 generator model Direct Calculation and sequential Monte Carlo methods to calculate reliabilty indices. MC2.exe is the executable.
OPMC3.txt repeats the above data 11 times to create a larger system using both Direct and MC solutions for reliability indices. MC3.exe is the executable.
OPMC3i.txt shows how to reformulate the direct solution for the above system creating a COPT capacity outage probablity table. MC3i.exe is the executable.
MC4.txt is a fortran program for simulating a 2 area large scale power system using both direct and sequential montecarlo solutions. The direct solution is extremely fast and accurate.
OPMC4.txt is the output report of the MC4 two area large scale example problem. MC4.exe is the executable.
Keeping The Grid Reliable As Renewables Grow
My 15 minute presentation to the Austin Electric Utility Commission concerning wind and solar generation in ERCOT.
My IEEE 2015 Denver Power Engineering Society Panel Session and LOLE working group presentation.
Georgetown TX will get all their energy from wind and solar, using ERCOT as its 'battery'. Can all cities do the same as Georgetown? (no)
ERCOT 100% renewables requires a $6600 billion investment in batteries which is far too expensive to be a realistic goal.
Prof Mark Jacobson ref 1 and
ref 2 claims 100% renewables are possible. However, Mark's study lacks a reliability analysis.
A Direct High Speed Calculation Procedure For Determining LOLE, LOLH, and EUE For Fossil, Wind, and Solar Generation With A Suggested Procedure For Also Including Transmission Constraints -
WECC video 1 - file 1 and repeated to the IEEE video 2 - file 2 which also has study results.
Here is why it's so important to keep the grid reliable, i.e. maintaining an LOLE<=0.1 days per year.
SDG&E disrupts power to 115,000 to avoid wider blackouts probably due to transmission ATC limits.
Here is my letter to the EPA concerning what I see in the future as we phase out coal.
Here are my comments to the PUCT project 42302 concerning LOLE as a measure of risk.
A Direct Method For Calculating Probabilistic Transmission Flows
Dissertation on composite generation/transmission reliability (1.3 Mb) Appendices
A B C D and
Bibliography and Defense
IEEE paper on generation reliability modeling with transmission constraints
IEEE paper on transmission reliability modeling for multiple line outages (zipflow)
This LOLP presentation shows how to create the COPT or capacity outage probability table.
Articles on: 2015 Energy and CO2 and Greenland and Antarctica Ice Loss.
My dissertation also revealed a way to perform Piecewise Quadratic time domain analysis.
Voltage Regulation theory presented by Kashem Muttaqi and Keith Elder at the
University of Wollongong.
Einstein's Assumption Fails A Simple Test, which Relativists are in denial they have a problem.
New ideas are always difficult to gain acceptance including the problem with general relativity I have described above.
My essay to the Gravity Foundation on Einstein's violation of a conservation law, which the Relativists have rejected.
How do you know the age of the universe is 13.8 billion years if the gravity potential is constantly increasing?
Here is a neat way to watch pay per view movies on TiVo or your Smart TV that can access Youtube.
A fool proof way to protect your win 7, win 8, and win 10 pc from viruses and malware.
Twitter comments I have posted discussing energy and climate change issues.
K5GP FISTS # is 6643 and W5JLP FISTS # is 5169.
Links to other K5GP amateur radio info.
K5GP's radio noise tracking equipment.
Whacky scientists search for planets - and then find them.
Boomer Block Pools information.