· Harmer and helper generators causing congestion are identified.

· Determinstic studies can be expanded as probabilistic studies.

· Nearby wind buses are quickly ID'd cutting wind study costs.

· Distance calculator quickly finds distances of all generators.

· Easy to read report listing ATCs in sorted ascending order.

· Low Fees: Solar $200/bus + ($200 setup for < 5 buses).

· Only $100/bus for zipflow* buses with ATC < 0.

· Quick turnaround on ATC study requests.

· * zipflow theory is on pages 123-128. Eugene G. Preston, PhD, PE

6121 Soter Parkway

Austin, TX 78735-6100

512-892-3621 ofc (please leave a message)

512-921-3337 cel

g.preston@ieee.org

Texas P.E. Board Registration

Eugene G. Preston's Resume (& clients)

Here is a good starting point for getting the IEEE Reliabilty Test System.

Estimating line lengths from X and B and correcting an IEEE RTS cable data error in the original system data.

IEEE 3 area RTS 1996 raw data in PSSE rev 33 format with suggested cable impedance corrections.

Output base case load flow solution report for the above data running my in-house load flow program.

Max injection power at each bus, i.e. the bus ATCs using my in-house written program.

Treating wind as probabilistic generators can introduce new types of modeling errors.

The 1979 RTS 24 bus system reliability model exact LOLE and LOLH are recreated in this program.

A 2016 RTS program with the 1986 RTS data entered into file DATAIN.txt duplicates 1986 results.

The RTS2016.exe program can be downloaded (it's safe - use more info - select run anyway option) and run with a different set of DATAIN data to model other systems.

This program allows wind and solar hourly MW to be entered into DATAIN.txt file. Any number of historical years can be simulated as a continuous time stream.

RTS.txt is an updated program with better generator entry format. Loads and variable resources are in HDATA.txt and

generator data is in GDATA.txt. The executable is RTS.exe and can be downloaded and run. The output for 2 identical years and 20 wind farms is posted.

RTSO.txt is renamed to RTSO.m and then runs in Octave. A 2 second fortran run time needs 15 minutes to run in Octave.

RTSM.txt is renamed to RTSM.m and then runs in Matlab. A 2 second fortran run only needs a few seconds to run in Matlab.

* The Loss Of Load Expectation LOLE is the annual sum of daily LOLPs (the maximum loss of load probability each day).

All the examples below are written in low level Fortran 77 with structure: array declarations, input data, calculations, and output reports.

DC.txt is a direct calculation example convolving ten randomly outaged generators. The 'exact' solution is listed after the program.

VDC.txt is the direct solution plus a full binary tree solution. The direct method is shown to be the same solution as a binary tree.

DCP.txt is the same as DC.txt except two of the generators also have derated power states. The 'exact' solution is listed after the program.

DCPi.txt is the same as DCP.txt except the convolution is performed shifting the full/partial outage states to the right. The 'exact' solution is given.

DCPj.txt is the same as DCPi.txt except real*4 instead of real*8 numbers are used. Comparing results shows the real*4 solution is accurate enough.

DCPk.txt uses DCPj.txt convolution in a large scale system example about the size of the eastern US grid, 8000 generators with ~780,000 MW total.

The .exe executables below were compiled for the source codes listed. They contain no viruses. Save the .exe and run from a command prompt window.

OPMC2.txt uses the 10 generator model Direct Calculation and sequential Monte Carlo methods to calculate reliabilty indices. MC2.exe is the executable.

OPMC3.txt repeats the above data 11 times to create a larger system using both Direct and MC solutions for reliability indices. MC3.exe is the executable.

OPMC3v.txt is the LOLEV version of MC3's LOLE. For summer peaking LOLEV=LOLE. MC is 380k times slower than COPT. MC3v.exe is the executable.

OPMC3i.txt shows how to reformulate the direct solution for the above system creating a COPT capacity outage probablity table. MC3i.exe is the executable.

MC4.txt is a fortran program for simulating a 2 area larger scale power system using both a direct solution and a frequency&duration MC solution.

OPMC4.txt is the output report of the MC4 two area larger scale example problem. MC4.exe is the executable.

MC4i.txt is like MC4 but can handle extremely large systems like the entire US system. Sequential MC is retained and with new outputs.

OPMC4i.txt is the output report of MC4i for the same two area larger scale example problem. MC4i.exe is the executable.

MC4F(X).txt shows the F(X) function for the MC4 program. MC4iF(X).txt shows the F(X) function for the MC4i program.

% Cap Value of Solar: 20% Solar Power in ERCOT on a typical summer day graphed as solar is varied and the same day with no solar.

Hourly US solar and wind data and an example study using this data.

GE MARS reliability LOLE measure is described on page 291; a clarification, the LOLE is the sum of daily max LOLP's.

UT Law Conference on Renewables and application and a presentation on the 2030 Clean Power Plan.

My 15 minute presentation to the Austin Electric Utility Commission concerning wind and solar generation in ERCOT.

My IEEE 2015 Denver Power Engineering Society Panel Session and LOLE working group presentation.

ERCOT 100% renewables requires a $6600 billion investment in batteries which is far too expensive to be a realistic goal.

A Direct High Speed Calculation Procedure For Determining LOLE, LOLH, and EUE For Fossil, Wind, and Solar Generation With A Suggested Procedure For Also Including Transmission Constraints - WECC video 1 - file 1 and repeated to the IEEE video 2 - file 2 which also has study results.

Here are my 2015 comments to the PUCT project 42302 concerning LOLE as a measure of risk.

Here are my 2016 comments to the PUCT project 42302 concerning the use of LOLE and LOLEV.

WECC presentation on a two area generation LOLP model combined with a two area transmission ATC model.

Case4 - 36% renewables - 24 GW wind, 24 GW solar

Case4s- 44% renewables - 24 GW wind, 36 GW solar, 10 GW 8 hour storage

Case6 - 100% renewables - 68 GW wind, 76 GW solar, 50 GW 330 hour storage; 0% fossil energy, 10% of fossil capacity remains

Case6a- 100% renewables - 68 GW wind, 76 GW solar, 71 GW 14 hour storage; 3% fossil energy, 98% of fossil capacity remains

Case7 - 100% renewables retire all nuclear - 76 GW wind, 84GW solar, 54 GW 350 hour storage

Case8 - 100% nuclear - 40 GW base LWR and IFR, 12 GW cycling HTGR, 17 GW gas assist nuclear (Per Peterson)

Case9 - 50% renewables - 30 GW wind, 40 GW solar, 5 GW 8 hour storage

Dissertation on composite generation/transmission reliability (1.3 Mb) Appendices A B C D and Bibliography and Defense

IEEE paper on generation reliability modeling with transmission constraints

IEEE paper on transmission reliability modeling for multiple line outages (zipflow)

ERCOT Seminar on generation adequacy LOLP mathematical methods in 2002.

This study suggests that the only way fossil fuels can be reduced is through a carbon tax.

See Ben Heard's excellent talk starting at 16 minutes in this video.

Jim Hansen assesses world wide options for fossil fuel reduction as an invited lecturer to China.

Mark Jacobson's reply to Hansen is more about US nuclear power policies than it is about physics.

Here are Mark Jacobson's papers. Mark has a valid point on nuclear development problems. But his concept has just as much delay in the building of new transmission lines as the building of new nuclear plants. This makes Mark's plan as slow to develop as a nuclear power plan. The US has no long range energy plan. Here are comments and more comments. My reply to Jacobson's Paper and this Nat Geo article.

Spherical cage street view and a closer view showing interior wires and corner construction resonates on ~37 MHz, 1.5 times desired; more R&D to follow...

Voltage Regulation theory by Kashem Muttaqi and Keith Elder at the University of Wollongong.

My dissertation also revealed a way to perform Piecewise Quadratic time domain analysis.

Real time grid frequency information collected by individuals across the US.

Interesting lightning energy research in Florida.

Age of universe depends on the rate of time flow over time.

Einstein's Assumption Fails conservaton of wavefronts test.

The apparent speed of light is a constant but is it absolute?

My twitter comments on energy and climate change.

K5GP FISTS #6643 W5JLP FISTS #5169.

Links to other K5GP amateur radio info.

K5GP's radio noise tracking equipment.

Here is a video of Space X landing on a barge.

Blue Origin 2nd flightand 3rd flight.

Go Pro camera on a rocket into space.

Interesting rocks? on the moon.

High resolution Hubble photos.

Check out Astrobob's web site.

Spectacular space station video.