This is a 10703 MW capacity 110 generator system with a sub area. Area 1 within this system is 973 MW with 10 generators. The total system load is winter peaking whereas area 1 is summer peaking. There are tie lines between area 1 and the rest of the system that have been given import limits of 300 MW at 99% availability and 200 MW at 1% availabilty. The export limit is given as 300 MW with 100% availability. Up to ten MW and availability states can be given to the ATC ties. The direct solution solves the single area problem first and then solves for reliability indices for the two separate areas with the tie line constraints. The Monte Carlo solution also solves the total area and the area 1 solutions so the differences between the two solution methods can be compared for speed and accuracy. The single area and area 1 direct solution is about 10,000 times faster than Monte Carlo and MC is still not as accurate as the direct solution even after 100,000 years of simulation. The direct solution could be used on a system such as PJM and applied there with solution times in seconds rather than hundreds of hours as they are currently experiencing. Please use this direct solution technology for the sake of our grid reliabilty assessment. Using standard ATC modeling with load flow solutions, determine the ATCs for load areas with internal generators in the load area at full Pmax and then back them down for the ATC determination. The different ATCs MW values are then given probabilities of being in each MW state. You may then assess the reliabilty indices for the load area being studied while making small changes in the transmission and generation system design. Run this program direct analysis to see those small changes in the indices. Do this at very high computation speeds. Don't mess around with Monte Carlo. It's much too slow and the results may have random solution noise making the results questionable or inconsistent. Gene Preston, Sept 6, 2015. see http://egpreston.com for more info. TOTAL SYSTEM HOURLY LOADS: (single area analysis) WINTER SUMMER OFF PEAK HR MW LOLP MW LOLP MW LOLP 1 5904. 0.00000000 5344. 0.00000000 2544. 0.00000000 2 6224. 0.00000000 5624. 0.00000000 2624. 0.00000000 3 6544. 0.00000000 5904. 0.00000000 2704. 0.00000000 4 6864. 0.00000000 6184. 0.00000000 2784. 0.00000000 5 7184. 0.00000000 6464. 0.00000000 2864. 0.00000000 6 7504. 0.00000000 6744. 0.00000000 2944. 0.00000000 7 7824. 0.00000001 7024. 0.00000000 3024. 0.00000000 8 8144. 0.00000035 7304. 0.00000000 3104. 0.00000000 9 8464. 0.00000663 7584. 0.00000000 3184. 0.00000000 10 8784. 0.00009990 7864. 0.00000002 3264. 0.00000000 11 9104. 0.00116223 8144. 0.00000035 3344. 0.00000000 12 9424. 0.00998912 8424. 0.00000465 3424. 0.00000000 13 9424. 0.00998912 8424. 0.00000465 3424. 0.00000000 14 9104. 0.00116223 8144. 0.00000035 3344. 0.00000000 15 8784. 0.00009990 7864. 0.00000002 3264. 0.00000000 16 8464. 0.00000663 7584. 0.00000000 3184. 0.00000000 17 8144. 0.00000035 7304. 0.00000000 3104. 0.00000000 18 7824. 0.00000001 7024. 0.00000000 3024. 0.00000000 19 7504. 0.00000000 6744. 0.00000000 2944. 0.00000000 20 7184. 0.00000000 6464. 0.00000000 2864. 0.00000000 21 6864. 0.00000000 6184. 0.00000000 2784. 0.00000000 22 6544. 0.00000000 5904. 0.00000000 2704. 0.00000000 23 6224. 0.00000000 5624. 0.00000000 2624. 0.00000000 24 5904. 0.00000000 5344. 0.00000000 2544. 0.00000000 D1 MIN, D2 WIN, D3 SUM, D4 ADD = 2000 8000 7000 1424 AREA 1 HOURLY LOADS: (area 1 is isolated) WINTER SUMMER OFF PEAK HR MW LOLP MW LOLP MW LOLP 1 392. 0.00019059 473. 0.00199813 168. 0.00000281 2 420. 0.00038873 507. 0.00346375 180. 0.00000308 3 448. 0.00097081 541. 0.00476578 192. 0.00000408 4 476. 0.00200443 575. 0.00503447 204. 0.00000687 5 504. 0.00338983 609. 0.00658280 216. 0.00000927 6 532. 0.00470413 642. 0.01003925 228. 0.00001038 7 560. 0.00486112 676. 0.01771949 240. 0.00001831 8 588. 0.00533541 710. 0.05166797 252. 0.00006419 9 616. 0.00682649 744. 0.08406298 264. 0.00006423 10 644. 0.01004867 778. 0.11537263 276. 0.00006449 11 672. 0.01488440 812. 0.11613750 288. 0.00006555 12 700. 0.04923480 846. 0.11979801 300. 0.00006810 13 700. 0.04923480 846. 0.11979801 300. 0.00006810 14 672. 0.01488440 812. 0.11613750 288. 0.00006555 15 644. 0.01004867 778. 0.11537263 276. 0.00006449 16 616. 0.00682649 744. 0.08406298 264. 0.00006423 17 588. 0.00533541 710. 0.05166797 252. 0.00006419 18 560. 0.00486112 676. 0.01771949 240. 0.00001831 19 532. 0.00470413 642. 0.01003925 228. 0.00001038 20 504. 0.00338983 609. 0.00658280 216. 0.00000927 21 476. 0.00200443 575. 0.00503447 204. 0.00000687 22 448. 0.00097081 541. 0.00476578 192. 0.00000408 23 420. 0.00038873 507. 0.00346375 180. 0.00000308 24 392. 0.00019059 473. 0.00199813 168. 0.00000281 D5 MIN, D6 WIN, D7 SUM = 300 700 846 SINGLE AREA DIRECT SOLUTION TIME = 0.05 SEC ------------------------------------------- LOLH LOLE ALLR 0.225305 0.099956 0.095577 ^ ^ MWHEUE MWHTOTAL puEUEppm 33.39505 28573440. 1.16874 ^ RESERVE MARGIN = 13.57 % 2 AREA INTERCONNECTION (note that up to 10 ATC states can be specified) +MW=IMPORT -MW=EXPORT ATCMW PROBLTY 300 0.99000 200 0.01000 -300 1.00000 +0 0.00000 (0 MW states are in addition to the 10 specified) -0 0.00000 AREA 1 DIRECT SOLUTION TIME = 0.14 SEC ------------------------------------------- LOLH LOLE ALLR 0.462914 0.120807 0.114066 ^ ^ MWHEUE MWHTOTAL puEUEppm 26.02050 2267660. 11.47460 ^ RESERVE MARGIN = 15.01 % BIG GRID DIRECT SOLUTION TIME = 0.66 SEC ------------------------------------------- LOLH LOLE ALLR 0.255618 0.112006 0.106526 MWHEUE MWHTOTAL puEUEppm 37.96939 26305780. 1.44339 RESERVE MARGIN = 11.53 % MONTECARLO SEQUENTIAL SOLUTION YRS LOLH LOLE ALOLP MWHEUE 1000. 0.290000 0.124000 0.026000 49.450 AREA 1 0.376000 0.099000 0.020000 21.456 10000. 0.277500 0.120700 0.024900 45.141 AREA 1 0.473300 0.112600 0.018700 27.751 100000. 0.243420 0.110570 0.024200 33.695 (compare ^ LOLH LOLE EUE to the single area direct solution) AREA 1 0.478440 0.115030 0.018200 27.487 (compare ^ LOLH LOLE EUE to the area 1 direct solution) ^ ^ ^ TIME = 31.45 MIN ATCS: LOLTV=LOSS OF LOAD TRANSMISSION EVENTS ATC MW= 300. PROB= 0.9900 LOLTV= 40904. PROB= 0.9900 CALCULATED ATC MW= 200. PROB= 0.0100 LOLTV= 1281. PROB= 0.0100 CALCULATED