* Direct calculation for cumulative distribution example written by Eugene Preston 12/15/2015. * DCPi.for calculates the LOLP of 10 randomly outaged generators for a given MW load level IX. * It differs from DCP.for in that the convolution shifts outage/derating states to the right. * The F(x) is inverted and reversed. F(X=0)=LOLP @ PMX F(PMX-X)=LOLP @ X MW LOAD INTEGER PMAX(10,2)/5,10,13,22,43,57,101,198,248,276,8*0,2*90/,PMX ! the 90 MW is a derating REAL*8 F(-1:1000)/1.D0,1001*0.D0/,FOR(10,2)/.15D0,.10D0,.09D0, &.07D0,.06D0,.05D0,.04D0,.04D0,.03D0,.03D0,8*.0D0,2*.01D0/,D8 ! derated states have 1% pr PMX=0 DO 1 I=1,10 PMX=PMX+PMAX(I,1) DO 1 IX=1000,0,-1 J1=IX-PMAX(I,1) ! shift the fully outage FOR state to the right J1 amount J2=IX-PMAX(I,2) ! shift the derated power state to the right J2 amount IF(J1.LT.-1) J1=-1 ! this effectively captures F(J1=X<0)=1 for Pr of J1 shift IF(J2.LT.-1) J2=-1 ! this effectively captures F(J2=X<0)=1 for Pr of J2 shift D8=1.D0-FOR(I,1)-FOR(I,2) ! the probability of full power at Pmax F(IX)= F(IX)*D8 ! the full power state is not shifted to the right F(IX)=F(IX)+FOR(I,1)*F(J1) ! the full outage state is shifted to the right J1 1 F(IX)=F(IX)+FOR(I,2)*F(J2) ! the partial power state is shifted to the right J2 OPEN(3,FILE='OP') WRITE(3,*)' MW 1 - F(X) F(X) = LOLP' WRITE(3,'(I4,2F20.16)')(PMX-IX,1.D0-F(IX),F(IX),IX=PMX,-1,-1) STOP END MW 1 - F(X) F(X) = LOLP 0 1.0000000000000000 0.0000000000000000 1 0.9999999999995918 0.0000000000004082 2 0.9999999999995918 0.0000000000004082 3 0.9999999999995918 0.0000000000004082 4 0.9999999999995918 0.0000000000004082 5 0.9999999999995918 0.0000000000004082 6 0.9999999999972784 0.0000000000027216 7 0.9999999999972784 0.0000000000027216 8 0.9999999999972784 0.0000000000027216 9 0.9999999999972784 0.0000000000027216 10 0.9999999999972784 0.0000000000027216 11 0.9999999999936042 0.0000000000063958 12 0.9999999999936042 0.0000000000063958 13 0.9999999999936042 0.0000000000063958 14 0.9999999999894765 0.0000000000105235 15 0.9999999999894765 0.0000000000105235 16 0.9999999999686563 0.0000000000313438 17 0.9999999999686563 0.0000000000313438 18 0.9999999999686563 0.0000000000313438 19 0.9999999999452656 0.0000000000547344 20 0.9999999999452656 0.0000000000547344 21 0.9999999999452656 0.0000000000547344 22 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